One debate that offers little wiggle room outside orthodoxy is the dominance of silverware in the country most fascinated with the game, Scotland. No other country sees a higher proportion of its population attend live football games, with the season-end attendance figures for its premier league equating to 57.95% of its population in 2021/22. You would think such an appetite for the game is accompanied by an entertaining and competitive league campaign. However, it’s been almost 40 years since a side outside of Rangers or Celtic lifted the title, sharing 81% of silverware since the turn of the millennia, and even that number is dominated by a relentless Celtic side. With such entrenched domination, how does one break the proverbial glass ceiling and give the Glasgow teams a run for their money without relying on Murphy’s Law? Well, what you don’t do and have hamstrung non-Old-Firm clubs for so long is the insistence on insularity, failing to cast their net wide enough to reap the rewards of market inefficiencies and undervalued talent. Outside of Glasgow, the tide seems to be slowly turning, Aberdeen are seemingly leading the way with smart player recruitment and a great new manager.
Despite a merry-go-round of managers and a challenging 23/24 campaign, Aberdeen remain a club with immense potential. They’ve shown an ability to develop youngsters and signed players, profiting greatly in the long run. Lewis Ferguson, Calvin Ramsay, Bojan Miovski, and Ylber Ramadani testify to such a statement and provide evidence of what Aberdeen can do quickly when they get it right. The key to this is recruiting the right person to head the team on the pitch, which, like for so many, has proven difficult for Aberdeen since Derek McInness left. So, imagining what could happen when a club with a recent track record of player development finds itself the right coach is exciting and perhaps a reality for Aberdeen fans.
Jimmy Thelin’s arrival to the Dons follows consecutive successful seasons in Sweden. Using RMA’s manager scouting dashboard, Thelin stands tall as his Elfsborg team proves outliers for several desirable metric combinations. Suppose you’re looking for a manager outside the top five leagues and under 50 who runs an incredibly effective pressing unit. In that case, Thelin is up there, as seen in the visualisation below.
Maybe pressing is not your priority, but instead, you want a manager with a track record of squeezing all he can out of set-pieces, both in offence and defensive sets. Again, if you’re looking outside the top-5 leagues and for those under 50, Thelin is one of your best bets, as evidenced by the visualisation below.
Despite pressing and set pieces forming the back-bone of Thelin’s Elfsborg, he’s not limited to succeeding in just those phases. RMA’s Team Profile of his 2023 Elfsborg side shows a team’s performance across key metrics, providing a comprehensive view of their playing style, strengths, and weaknesses and it is an evidence of the great success that he cultivated at Elfsborg. Using RMA’s formulas, Thelin’s side was best described as a side that aimed for direct domination, forgoing a focus on long possession sequences for quick and vertical football, born out of 1v1 duels, ball-carrying, width and lots of running. Such intensity is matched and maybe surpassed out of possession, where he adopted an overtly press-heavy approach, pressing high and counter-pressing when possession is lost. In tandem, this saw his side dominate both boxes and, despite not controlling possession, control the game’s tempo.
Aberdeen’s physical metrics evidence that they were not energetic high pressers last season, as they were the lowest among all teams in leagues ranked 6-15 for Presses p90, Presses in the Opponent Half p90, High-Speed Runs p90, Running Distance and Sprints p90. Switching from one style to another won’t happen overnight; however, one of Aberdeen’s recent signings should go a long way toward setting the tone. Despite being on the older side, Sivert Heltne Nilsen’s signing appears intelligent. The alignment between his strengths and the demands in Thelin’s engine room almost entirely overlaps. The defensive midfielder should provide great intensity and efficacy, evidenced by his frankly ridiculous defensive stats, whilst showing off progressive tendencies in the build-up and the ability to create for those further forward.
Thelin relied more on his wingers and no.10 for goals throughout his stint at Elfsborg. This is likely music to the ears of an Aberdeen side who recently lost their star striker, albeit for a very healthy profit. Inside wingers, Jeppe Okkels and Jacob Ondrejka were particularly important on his most successful sides. The latter starred, earning a move to Utrecht for almost €4m. Aberdeen seems to have found Thelin Ondrejka 2.0 with the signing of Topi Keskinen from HJK Helsinki. Keskinen, like Ondrejka, is a dangerous inside forward. They’re both aggressive ball-carriers who cut inside with purpose, position themselves well, and constantly hunt shot opportunities. They provide a tangible creative threat; however, their focus is first and foremost on the goal themselves. Keskinen was also able to evidence solid out-of-possession work, pressing with intensity and forcing opponents to adapt their build-up plans.
Incomings like Keskinen and Nielsen indicate a recruitment team aligned with their managers’ style. Further additions as Thelin’s tenure matures are expected as there are areas of the squad with room to grow. Given the narrow nature of his wingers at Elfsborg, Thelin relied highly on overlapping fullbacks to create and provide, with both RBs and LBs seeing an unusually high share of time in possession. Should Aberdeen be looking for recruits at full-back in line with Thelin’s previous personnel, using the power of RMA, we suggest they look back to Sweden for a solution. Recently promoted Vasteras have a gem on their hands with LB Max Larsson. The Swede would provide the athleticism, confidence in possession, progressive intent and intensity out of possession that Thelin thrives with. The cherry on top is that Larsson has maintained such great form for a side that sits in the Allsvenskan’s relegation places, emboldening prospective suitors to have real confidence in a successful transition.
Beyond some asymmetry at FB, Aberdeen has signalled an intent to further bolster the CB and CF position this summer. The club doesn’t lack numbers in either position; however, adding quality at both positions is a prerequisite to success at any level. They will hope they’ve done so with the loan of former Hibernian star Kevin Nisbet confirmed. Should the CF regain the form he showed when last in Scotland, he’ll provide a tangible goal threat as well as the physical robustness and ability to link play that Thelin valued in his no.9s at Elfsborg. Earlier links to centre-back Ibane Bowat provide further evidence of alignment between manager style and recruitment given his impressive physical tools and front-footed approach; however, he ended up at Portsmouth in the English Championship; expect CB to be a position and this profile, particularly to be revisited perhaps in the winter or next summer.
Thelin is not guaranteed to succeed. However, his hiring is supported by a wealth of evidence suggesting he should. Since joining, the club’s moves in the market have been largely positive, providing Thelin with the building blocks to replicate his success at Elfsborg and early signs of an alignment of thought that all Scottish clubs aim to replicate.
